Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251010 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.70 130.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.9 10.0 13.3 16.1 19.3 34.3 48.6 77.7 F F F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 37.0 35.0 31.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 106.5 102.4 100.5 94.8 91.2 81.1 73.6 70.8 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 30.0 7.0 -13.0 -8.0 -7.0 47.0 80.0 N N U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 51.0 50.0 50.0 53.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 2.0 10.0 0.0 16.0 -31.0 -89.0 N N N U N U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 4.4% 3.4% 25kt / 24h 5.8% 17.9% 11.8% 30kt / 24h 3.3% 10.1% 6.7% 35kt / 24h 2.4% 8.9% 5.7% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 7.0% 3.7% 45kt / 36h 3.3% 22.6% 12.9% 55kt / 36h 3.0% 11.0% 7.0% 55kt / 48h 12.2% 4.3% 8.3% 70kt / 48h 4.3% 2.5% 3.4% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 WP292025 251010 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.70 130.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.