Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251011 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 130.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.10 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.3 14.8 16.9 19.4 27.9 31.0 49.4 60.3 F F F N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 36.0 31.0 24.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.4 107.4 101.6 99.8 94.4 81.5 78.6 66.7 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -21.0 5.0 24.0 34.0 N U U U VU U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 53.0 53.0 55.0 54.0 50.0 46.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 3.0 14.0 -32.0 -72.0 N N N N N U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.9% 2.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 5.4% 2.9% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 1.6% 1.0% 55kt / 48h 5.3% 1.5% 3.4% 70kt / 48h 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.30 WP292025 251011 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 130.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.