Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251011 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.70 131.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.90 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.4 15.4 18.5 20.0 32.9 36.9 55.0 62.9 F F N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 28.0 21.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.4 101.6 99.8 99.8 86.1 87.7 77.2 60.9 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -1.0 -18.0 0.0 31.0 21.0 U U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 55.0 54.0 53.0 55.0 54.0 50.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 -5.0 -42.0-122.0 N N N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 2.1% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.22 WP292025 251011 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.70 131.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.