Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251011 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 131.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.70 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.8 22.2 21.2 24.8 31.8 47.9 58.9 55.7 F N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 21.0 14.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.6 89.8 86.2 84.4 71.5 67.2 54.3 49.8 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 -5.0 -3.0 -27.0 -25.0 30.0 49.0 67.0 U U U VU VU N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 51.0 52.0 56.0 54.0 57.0 57.0 51.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 18.0 -14.0 2.0 -59.0 N N N N VU VF N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.0% 2.2% 2.6% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 4.6% 2.8% 30kt / 24h 0.9% 1.9% 1.4% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 1.5% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 1.3% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.7% 2.0% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 1.0% 0.1% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 WP292025 251011 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 131.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.