Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251011 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.30 131.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 25.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.4 20.4 23.6 28.5 32.4 52.0 52.7 67.5 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 15.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.8 79.8 74.4 66.1 66.1 55.8 42.0 47.9 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -5.0 -3.0 -28.0 -3.0 -3.0 60.0 49.0 80.0 U U VU U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 55.0 51.0 55.0 58.0 54.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 16.0 19.0 8.0 -12.0 -28.0 N N N U VU U F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.0% 6.4% 10.2% 25kt / 24h 4.3% 7.4% 5.8% 30kt / 24h 4.3% 3.7% 4.0% 35kt / 24h 3.6% 3.2% 3.4% 40kt / 24h 2.0% 3.0% 2.5% 45kt / 36h 1.0% 5.5% 3.2% 55kt / 36h 1.0% 1.9% 1.4% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.82 WP292025 251011 18UTC Storm Located at : 29.30 131.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.