Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251012 06UTC Storm Located at : 30.90 135.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 46.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 27.5 29.6 31.8 51.8 62.8 75.6 90.6 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 1.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.4 59.6 64.3 61.1 49.4 45.4 41.7 34.8 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -26.0 -6.0 -16.0 26.0 55.0 45.0 73.0 56.0 VU U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 56.0 56.0 62.0 60.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 0.0 13.0 8.0 -14.0 -36.0 -34.0 -10.0 U N U U VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.0% 0.9% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.48 WP292025 251012 06UTC Storm Located at : 30.90 135.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.