Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251012 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.70 136.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 53.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 28.6 32.8 42.3 59.8 65.5 78.1 79.0 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.6 59.3 56.1 56.1 45.8 30.9 28.8 26.7 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -6.0 -17.0 11.0 18.0 46.0 63.0 96.0 65.0 U U U U N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 55.0 55.0 49.0 57.0 58.0 54.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 12.0 9.0 1.0 -40.0 -47.0 -39.0 -19.0 N U U N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.6% 1.3% 1.9% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.32 WP292025 251012 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.70 136.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.