Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251012 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.20 138.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 30.3 42.0 49.0 68.7 60.5 75.4 83.1 N N VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.3 51.1 49.6 39.4 27.0 23.8 23.8 10.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -13.0 6.0 18.0 42.0 36.0 26.0 98.0 50.0 U U U N N U F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 50.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 53.0 53.0 51.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 0.0 -12.0 -46.0 -33.0 -23.0 -63.0 22.0 N N F VF VF VF VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.7% 1.8% 4.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.04 WP292025 251012 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.20 138.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.