Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251013 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 140.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.2 42.3 47.2 57.8 66.0 61.5 72.9 73.4 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 44.6 37.2 34.4 25.5 18.8 17.7 14.7 19.8 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 11.0 31.0 31.0 34.0 106.0 79.0 40.0 U U N N N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 54.0 51.0 51.0 46.0 45.0 38.0 24.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -32.0 -44.0 -39.0 -11.0 -84.0 -46.0 -5.0 F VF VF VF F VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.4% 0.7% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.50 WP292025 251013 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 140.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.