Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292025 251013 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.7  47.2  57.8  66.5  66.5  74.9  76.3  77.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.2  43.0  35.5  32.0  27.7  27.7  23.7  19.1  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  51.0  81.0  40.0  58.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  46.0  41.0  33.0  26.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -33.0 -44.0 -39.0 -47.0 -63.0 -44.0  11.0 -20.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.22

 WP292025 251013 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.