Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251013 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 145.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 38.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.6 54.4 69.7 70.1 74.6 78.7 74.8 74.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 43.0 35.5 32.0 28.8 28.8 23.7 20.9 20.9 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 73.0 68.0 33.0 33.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 48.0 45.0 44.0 46.0 40.0 31.0 31.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -30.0 -35.0 -36.0 -33.0 -58.0 -59.0 -39.0 -39.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.82 WP292025 251013 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 145.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.