Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292025 251013 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20    147.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.2  65.6  63.3  58.5  64.6  83.4 109.9 113.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.4  44.2  33.8  32.7  30.7  19.2  -2.3 -12.1  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  36.0  37.0  54.0  57.0  40.0  29.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  46.0  47.0  46.0  36.0  44.0  47.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -30.0 -24.0 -34.0 -68.0 -70.0 -60.0   9.0  41.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.78

 WP292025 251013 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20    147.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.