Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251014 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.90 151.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 69.9 62.8 62.2 66.3 66.3 66.3 66.3 66.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.9 33.8 32.7 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 36.0 37.0 54.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 45.0 46.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 VU VU VU U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -35.0 -34.0 -82.0 -86.0 -86.0 -86.0 -86.0 -86.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.36 WP292025 251014 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.90 151.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.