Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292025 251014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.00    154.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        64.8  66.0  57.8  65.7  74.1 102.7 106.1 113.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         22.7  22.7  23.8  28.2  16.8  -7.8 -22.5 -26.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  65.0  82.0  75.0  41.0  59.0  53.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  44.0  42.0  37.0  35.0  46.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -50.0 -54.0 -55.0 -36.0 -45.0 -41.0 -18.0  16.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.16

 WP292025 251014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.00    154.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.