Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292025 251014 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.40 158.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 59.9 52.5 67.0 72.7 102.2 112.6 119.1 120.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 22.7 22.7 18.7 17.8 -1.0 -20.1 -24.8 -26.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 40.0 71.0 64.0 52.0 9.0 58.0 59.0 82.0 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 47.0 45.0 44.0 44.0 48.0 44.0 44.0 VU VU VU VU VU U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -45.0 -88.0 -61.0 -63.0 -20.0 -15.0 -11.0 -19.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.82 WP292025 251014 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.40 158.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.