Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292025 251014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.60    161.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        63.4  73.3  85.5  91.4 107.3 126.5 120.6 115.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.7  15.0  15.0   4.6 -11.8 -19.8 -21.7 -21.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  64.0  52.0  32.0  44.0  54.0  64.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  46.0  47.0  48.0  53.0  60.0  49.0  47.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -88.0 -84.0 -48.0 -46.0  -6.0  13.0 -60.0 -73.0 VF VF VF VF  F  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.86

 WP292025 251014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.60    161.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.