Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251018 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  12.9   8.7   9.0  12.5  22.8  22.6  25.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0  87.0  87.0  79.0  77.0  55.0  43.0  34.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 129.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  79.0  99.0  90.0  76.0  67.0  71.0  60.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  83.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0   7.0   8.0  11.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.4%       15.3%       12.3%
 25kt / 24h       53.3%       75.8%       64.6%
 30kt / 24h       33.7%       62.2%       48.0%
 35kt / 24h       20.4%       62.2%       41.3%
 40kt / 24h        7.8%       62.2%       35.0%
 45kt / 36h       53.6%       86.6%       70.1%
 55kt / 36h       41.8%       78.7%       60.2%
 55kt / 48h       41.8%       69.7%       55.8%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       69.0%       47.1%
 65kt / 72h       52.8%       71.0%       61.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP302025 251018 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  12.9   8.7   9.0  12.5  22.8  22.6  25.4  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  83.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0   7.0   8.0  11.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%