Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251018 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    152.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0   9.1   7.9  12.9  22.7  27.2  29.9  32.1  F  F VF  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  70.0  72.0  77.0  65.0  45.0  31.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 129.6 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  99.0  90.0  88.0  55.0  78.0  61.0  96.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   7.0   8.0   3.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%       13.3%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h       47.3%       74.4%       60.8%
 30kt / 24h       23.5%       61.9%       42.7%
 35kt / 24h       18.7%       61.9%       40.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       59.6%       30.8%
 45kt / 36h       39.5%       81.9%       60.7%
 55kt / 36h       27.8%       70.9%       49.3%
 55kt / 48h       48.4%       60.8%       54.6%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       55.1%       40.1%
 65kt / 72h       35.8%       55.3%       45.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP302025 251018 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    152.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0   9.1   7.9  12.9  22.7  27.2  29.9  32.1  U  U VU  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   7.0   8.0   3.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%