Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302025 251018 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 124.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.7 9.8 12.7 18.6 24.4 24.9 28.0 35.0 F F F N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 70.0 72.0 78.0 72.0 55.0 35.0 28.0 26.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6 124.6 124.6 F F F F F N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 99.0 86.0 108.0 101.0 70.0 93.0 66.0 40.0 F F F F N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 77.0 76.0 71.0 71.0 68.0 71.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 2.0 1.0 16.0 13.0 14.0 20.0 23.0 N N N U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.5% 15.4% 11.4% 25kt / 24h 47.9% 71.2% 59.6% 30kt / 24h 26.0% 57.5% 41.7% 35kt / 24h 15.3% 57.5% 36.4% 40kt / 24h 6.1% 57.5% 31.8% 45kt / 36h 39.5% 71.8% 55.6% 55kt / 36h 26.0% 54.1% 40.0% 55kt / 48h 47.4% 48.4% 47.9% 70kt / 48h 25.1% 35.1% 30.1% 65kt / 72h 31.9% 30.3% 31.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.20 WP302025 251018 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 124.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.7 9.8 12.7 18.6 24.4 24.9 28.0 35.0 U U U N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 77.0 76.0 71.0 71.0 68.0 71.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 2.0 1.0 16.0 13.0 14.0 20.0 23.0 N N N F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%