Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  13.7  19.9  25.6  32.9  28.1  32.7  30.5  F  F  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  77.0  70.0  60.0  40.0  30.0  27.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 122.3 122.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0 108.0 102.0  85.0  93.0  87.0  60.0   8.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  77.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0  11.0   6.0  26.0  13.0  17.0  11.0  N  N  U  N VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%       13.2%       10.1%
 25kt / 24h       36.0%       59.8%       47.9%
 30kt / 24h       18.6%       41.4%       30.0%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       41.4%       26.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.7%       41.4%       22.5%
 45kt / 36h       26.8%       54.5%       40.7%
 55kt / 36h       14.9%       31.8%       23.3%
 55kt / 48h       35.9%       31.5%       33.7%
 70kt / 48h       18.1%       19.7%       18.9%
 65kt / 72h       19.7%       20.3%       20.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP302025 251018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  13.7  19.9  25.6  32.9  28.1  32.7  30.5  U  U  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  77.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0  11.0   6.0  26.0  13.0  17.0  11.0  N  N  F  N VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%