Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251019 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    121.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.7  15.5  23.1  22.6  24.3  27.5  30.5  30.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  72.0  63.0  53.0  35.0  31.0  30.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 124.6 124.6 122.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   135.0 109.0  85.0  91.0  78.0  63.0  34.0 -26.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  71.0  71.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   8.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  19.0  22.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        6.3%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       22.1%       42.8%       32.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       24.5%       17.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       24.0%       14.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       24.0%       12.7%
 45kt / 36h       16.6%       37.4%       27.0%
 55kt / 36h        7.8%       17.4%       12.6%
 55kt / 48h       29.3%       21.5%       25.4%
 70kt / 48h       13.3%       10.2%       11.8%
 65kt / 72h       15.8%       11.6%       13.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 WP302025 251019 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    121.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.7  15.5  23.1  22.6  24.3  27.5  30.5  30.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  71.0  71.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   8.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  19.0  22.0   9.0  N  F  F  F  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%