Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    119.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  23.8  24.1  24.5  28.4  34.6  32.0  29.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  61.0  52.0  39.0  32.0  29.0  27.0  30.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 122.3 124.6 124.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0  85.0  91.0  67.0  56.0  42.0  17.0  -5.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  69.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0  13.0  13.0  14.0  22.0  13.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        7.1%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       22.3%       47.0%       34.7%
 30kt / 24h        9.0%       29.9%       19.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%       29.9%       16.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       26.0%       13.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.2%       41.9%       27.0%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%       20.7%       12.9%
 55kt / 48h       17.0%       17.6%       17.3%
 70kt / 48h        5.7%        8.5%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%       11.0%        9.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP302025 251019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    119.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  23.8  24.1  24.5  28.4  34.6  32.0  29.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  69.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0  13.0  13.0  14.0  22.0  13.0   9.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%