Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251019 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  19.7  19.1  24.8  25.7  28.7  25.3  25.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  55.0  43.0  36.0  32.0  29.0  29.0  33.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 127.0 124.6 124.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  87.0  62.0  60.0  24.0  20.0 -14.0  -6.0  N  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0  14.0  17.0  15.0  11.0   8.0  17.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.7%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       23.2%       16.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%       10.7%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       10.0%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       10.0%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.2%       18.1%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        6.4%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       10.1%        9.1%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        3.7%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        7.2%        5.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 WP302025 251019 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    118.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  19.7  19.1  24.8  25.7  28.7  25.3  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0  14.0  17.0  15.0  11.0   8.0  17.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%