Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  23.8  27.7  28.0  26.3  28.3  26.4  22.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  35.0  30.0  28.0  28.0  26.0  28.0  28.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 122.0 119.6 115.1 112.9 115.1 119.6 117.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  62.0  60.0  47.0  40.0   6.0  -5.0 -10.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  15.0  16.0  16.0  10.0   8.0  10.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.7%       10.1%        9.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       40.3%       30.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       25.5%       18.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.2%       25.5%       16.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%       22.9%       13.2%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       37.6%       23.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       19.1%       11.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.4%       11.2%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        7.2%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        8.9%        5.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 WP302025 251019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  23.8  27.7  28.0  26.3  28.3  26.4  22.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  15.0  16.0  16.0  10.0   8.0  10.0  15.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%