Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302025 251020 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 116.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 64.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 27.3 26.8 26.4 30.5 25.7 26.5 17.4 N N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 31.0 28.0 26.0 27.0 26.0 27.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 117.0 114.6 114.6 110.1 112.3 114.6 114.6 112.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 60.0 47.0 24.0 19.0 -15.0 -6.0 -9.0 N N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 72.0 73.0 76.0 77.0 75.0 76.0 73.0 N N N F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 16.0 17.0 13.0 8.0 7.0 18.0 15.0 U U U U U N VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.8% 13.8% 14.3% 25kt / 24h 25.7% 44.5% 35.1% 30kt / 24h 16.6% 31.8% 24.2% 35kt / 24h 16.6% 31.8% 24.2% 40kt / 24h 5.4% 29.4% 17.4% 45kt / 36h 12.0% 40.4% 26.2% 55kt / 36h 6.4% 22.0% 14.2% 55kt / 48h 3.7% 11.6% 7.6% 70kt / 48h 0.9% 7.8% 4.3% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 8.4% 4.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.20 WP302025 251020 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 116.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 27.3 26.8 26.4 30.5 25.7 26.5 17.4 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 72.0 73.0 76.0 77.0 75.0 76.0 73.0 N N N U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 16.0 17.0 13.0 8.0 7.0 18.0 15.0 F F F F F N VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%