Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251020 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    115.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  25.8  25.7  25.6  29.8  24.9  21.1  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  26.0  27.0  25.0  24.0  24.0  23.0  23.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 110.1 107.9 112.3 114.6 114.6 110.1 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  49.0  66.0  40.0   9.0 -31.0   7.0  14.0  U  N  N  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  13.0  16.0  10.0  12.0  15.0  21.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        6.0%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       12.9%       26.2%       19.5%
 30kt / 24h        8.5%       15.3%       11.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.5%       15.3%       11.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       13.6%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       21.8%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        9.2%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        6.4%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        3.4%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        5.2%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 WP302025 251020 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    115.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  25.8  25.7  25.6  29.8  24.9  21.1  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  13.0  16.0  10.0  12.0  15.0  21.0  27.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%