Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    114.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  28.6  30.5  30.1  26.7  24.0  21.7  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  25.0  25.0  24.0  25.0  24.0  34.3  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        110.1 107.9 107.9 110.1 112.3 112.3 117.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  29.0  39.0  31.0 -39.0 -27.0 -11.0  31.0  N  N  N  N VU VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  73.0  71.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  19.0  18.0  19.0  18.0  22.0  30.0  25.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.2%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        6.4%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 WP302025 251020 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    114.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  28.6  30.5  30.1  26.7  24.0  21.7  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  73.0  71.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  19.0  18.0  19.0  18.0  22.0  30.0  25.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%