Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  29.3  30.9  30.5  24.1  23.8  21.3  17.7  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  24.0  24.0  23.0  24.0  24.0  29.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        112.3 112.3 110.1 112.3 110.1 110.1 117.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  40.0  32.0 -10.0 -40.0 -20.0  40.0  19.0  N  N  N  U VU VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  16.0  20.0  19.0  15.0  26.0  30.0  15.0 VU  U VU VU  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.1%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        6.0%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.2%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 WP302025 251020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  29.3  30.9  30.5  24.1  23.8  21.3  17.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  16.0  20.0  19.0  15.0  26.0  30.0  15.0 VF  F VF VF  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%