Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  32.0  28.7  26.7  23.2  24.1  27.6  27.6  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  24.0  25.0  25.0  23.0  24.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.1 114.6 112.3 112.3 110.1 110.1 112.3 112.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  30.0 -10.0 -29.0 -36.0  -9.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  24.0  21.0  22.0  22.0  27.0  32.0  32.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.8%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.5%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 WP302025 251021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  32.0  28.7  26.7  23.2  24.1  27.6  27.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  24.0  21.0  22.0  22.0  27.0  32.0  32.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%