Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251021 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    111.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.0  29.0  27.3  24.7  29.1  24.9  25.0  19.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  22.0  22.0  19.0  16.0  32.7  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        114.6 112.3 112.3 110.1 110.1 117.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0 -10.0 -29.0 -40.0  -6.0   3.0  28.0  35.0  N  U VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  21.0  21.0  18.0  23.0  29.0  26.0  11.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.2%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.7%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 WP302025 251021 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    111.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.0  29.0  27.3  24.7  29.1  24.9  25.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  21.0  21.0  18.0  23.0  29.0  26.0  11.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%