Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  26.2  23.3  23.8  27.4  26.9  26.4  26.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  22.0  21.0  22.0  19.0  19.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3 112.3 110.1 110.1 110.1 110.1 110.1 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0 -21.0 -20.0 -21.0  19.0   8.0  10.0  10.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  72.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  20.0  13.0  15.0  28.0  29.0  16.0  16.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.1%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        6.8%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.7%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 WP302025 251021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  26.2  23.3  23.8  27.4  26.9  26.4  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  72.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  20.0  13.0  15.0  28.0  29.0  16.0  16.0 VF VF  F  F VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%