Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302025 251022 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 111.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.9 30.5 35.1 32.5 29.8 20.3 11.7 11.7 U N U U N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 23.0 22.0 22.0 21.0 44.0 66.0 66.0 U U U U U N N N Potential [kt] 112.3 110.1 110.1 107.9 110.1 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 -12.0 -24.0 25.0 -28.0 5.0 27.0 27.0 VU U VU U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 66.0 68.0 74.0 69.0 67.0 69.0 69.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 20.0 23.0 28.0 29.0 21.0 5.0 5.0 U VU VU VU VU VU N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.5% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 1.8% 1.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.98 WP302025 251022 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 111.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.9 30.5 35.1 32.5 29.8 20.3 11.7 11.7 N N F N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 66.0 68.0 74.0 69.0 67.0 69.0 69.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 20.0 23.0 28.0 29.0 21.0 5.0 5.0 F VF VF VF VF VF N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%