Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302025 251022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  36.5  35.8  34.0  31.4  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  19.0  20.0  20.0  22.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7 107.9 107.9 110.1 110.1 110.1 110.1 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0 -24.0 -27.0 -24.0 -11.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  22.0  31.0  28.0  26.0  20.0  20.0  20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 WP302025 251022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  36.5  35.8  34.0  31.4  25.0  25.0  25.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  22.0  31.0  28.0  26.0  20.0  20.0  20.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%