Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302025 251022 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 109.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.3 34.9 35.3 32.2 22.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 U U U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 20.0 13.0 22.0 31.5 41.0 41.0 41.0 U U U U U N N N Potential [kt] 107.9 107.9 110.1 110.1 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -31.0 -27.0 -24.0 -34.0 6.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 66.0 70.0 69.0 67.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 28.0 25.0 30.0 27.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.92 WP302025 251022 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 109.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.3 34.9 35.3 32.2 22.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 F F F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 66.0 70.0 69.0 67.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 28.0 25.0 30.0 27.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%