Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302025 251022 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 108.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.9 32.3 34.4 31.5 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 U U U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 23.0 22.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.1 120.1 120.1 122.3 124.6 124.6 124.6 124.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -25.0 -28.0 -29.0 -7.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 VU VU VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 69.0 67.0 70.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 28.0 26.0 32.0 30.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.00 WP302025 251022 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 108.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.9 32.3 34.4 31.5 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 F N F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 69.0 67.0 70.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 28.0 26.0 32.0 30.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%