Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302025 251023 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 108.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.40 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 U N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 132.9 132.9 132.9 132.9 132.9 132.9 132.9 132.9 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 27.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.88 WP302025 251023 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 108.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 27.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%