Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302025 251023 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 22.1 20.0 20.3 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 N N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 27.7 35.3 43.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 U U U N N N N N Potential [kt] 140.1 147.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 30.0 50.0 73.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 U N N N F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 68.0 67.0 72.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 28.0 19.0 21.0 20.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 VU VU VU VU N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 5.3% 2.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.5% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 1.5% 17.0% 9.3% 55kt / 36h 0.9% 5.8% 3.4% 55kt / 48h 20.7% 11.2% 16.0% 70kt / 48h 8.7% 8.0% 8.3% 65kt / 72h 44.1% 37.3% 40.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.36 WP302025 251023 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.9 22.1 20.0 20.3 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 68.0 67.0 72.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 28.0 19.0 21.0 20.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 VF VF VF VF N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%