Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  23.8  23.5  28.6  25.0  28.9  31.9  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0  97.0  97.0  97.0  96.0  98.0  80.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   130.0 115.0 107.0  94.0  88.0  97.0  85.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  80.0  79.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        4.2%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       26.1%       44.7%       35.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.6%       22.2%       16.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       21.0%       11.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%       18.2%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h       22.9%       56.4%       39.7%
 55kt / 36h       12.9%       31.9%       22.4%
 55kt / 48h       48.6%       36.3%       42.4%
 70kt / 48h       26.4%       32.5%       29.5%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       56.9%       59.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 WP312025 251101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  23.8  23.5  28.6  25.0  28.9  31.9  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  80.0  79.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%