Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  21.7  24.4  22.8  26.7  25.4  29.3  34.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  97.0  97.0  96.0  98.0  95.0  76.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0 113.0  97.0 103.0 146.0 115.0  93.0  75.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  82.0  80.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        6.8%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h       36.9%       57.1%       47.0%
 30kt / 24h       15.3%       36.1%       25.7%
 35kt / 24h       11.4%       36.1%       23.7%
 40kt / 24h       11.4%       30.1%       20.8%
 45kt / 36h       33.9%       69.1%       51.5%
 55kt / 36h       20.1%       47.4%       33.8%
 55kt / 48h       43.7%       50.7%       47.2%
 70kt / 48h       26.6%       45.3%       36.0%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       65.6%       64.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 WP312025 251101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  21.7  24.4  22.8  26.7  25.4  29.3  34.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  82.0  80.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%