Rapid Intensification Guidance WP312025 251101 18UTC Storm Located at : 10.60 136.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 24.5 22.8 19.2 27.2 23.7 30.7 34.9 N N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 97.0 97.0 96.0 94.0 96.0 88.0 74.0 73.0 F F F F F F N N Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 113.0 97.0 103.0 83.0 154.0 88.0 93.0 63.0 F F F N VF F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 78.0 79.0 78.0 80.0 81.0 84.0 87.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 16.3% 19.7% 18.0% 25kt / 24h 63.9% 76.5% 70.2% 30kt / 24h 42.0% 65.7% 53.9% 35kt / 24h 26.9% 65.7% 46.3% 40kt / 24h 26.9% 62.1% 44.5% 45kt / 36h 50.3% 81.2% 65.7% 55kt / 36h 32.5% 66.8% 49.6% 55kt / 48h 41.8% 62.0% 51.9% 70kt / 48h 25.8% 57.9% 41.8% 65kt / 72h 57.4% 63.4% 60.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.44 WP312025 251101 18UTC Storm Located at : 10.60 136.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 24.5 22.8 19.2 27.2 23.7 30.7 34.9 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 78.0 79.0 78.0 80.0 81.0 84.0 87.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%