Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80    135.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  22.8  20.1  19.5  27.0  24.3  31.2  33.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  96.0  96.0  96.0  98.0  78.0  71.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0 115.0  83.0 149.0 121.0 114.0  88.0  87.0  F  F  N VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  79.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.6%       13.3%       13.9%
 25kt / 24h       56.7%       66.9%       61.8%
 30kt / 24h       37.7%       51.4%       44.5%
 35kt / 24h       23.7%       51.4%       37.5%
 40kt / 24h       23.7%       51.4%       37.5%
 45kt / 36h       49.4%       65.6%       57.5%
 55kt / 36h       31.0%       42.7%       36.9%
 55kt / 48h       41.8%       49.3%       45.6%
 70kt / 48h       25.9%       36.8%       31.3%
 65kt / 72h       60.2%       45.6%       52.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP312025 251102 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80    135.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  22.8  20.1  19.5  27.0  24.3  31.2  33.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  79.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%