Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  19.7  16.2  26.0  25.6  28.1  28.8  28.4  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  96.0  97.0  96.0  88.0  76.0  71.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 116.0 148.0 136.0 124.0 104.0  79.0 113.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.5%       19.5%       20.0%
 25kt / 24h       65.6%       73.3%       69.4%
 30kt / 24h       47.8%       62.5%       55.2%
 35kt / 24h       27.6%       62.5%       45.1%
 40kt / 24h       27.6%       62.4%       45.0%
 45kt / 36h       54.2%       67.1%       60.6%
 55kt / 36h       32.7%       44.9%       38.8%
 55kt / 48h       42.7%       50.6%       46.7%
 70kt / 48h       26.6%       34.8%       30.7%
 65kt / 72h       60.2%       46.3%       53.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 WP312025 251102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  19.7  16.2  26.0  25.6  28.1  28.8  28.4  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%