Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251102 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    131.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  18.0  25.7  26.9  23.9  27.6  34.0  27.1  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  97.0  97.0  97.0  78.0  70.0  78.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0 148.0 136.0 131.0 116.0  88.0  87.0  76.0  F VF VF  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  72.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       36.2%       29.5%       32.9%
 25kt / 24h       72.9%       78.0%       75.5%
 30kt / 24h       56.7%       71.4%       64.1%
 35kt / 24h       46.3%       71.4%       58.9%
 40kt / 24h       46.3%       70.0%       58.2%
 45kt / 36h       59.5%       69.0%       64.2%
 55kt / 36h       34.0%       47.2%       40.6%
 55kt / 48h       49.6%       49.3%       49.5%
 70kt / 48h       25.5%       30.4%       27.9%
 65kt / 72h       52.7%       39.8%       46.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP312025 251102 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    131.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  18.0  25.7  26.9  23.9  27.6  34.0  27.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  72.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%