Rapid Intensification Guidance WP312025 251102 18UTC Storm Located at : 11.00 130.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 84.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 26.1 27.4 24.7 36.4 30.9 30.8 27.1 N N N N U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 98.0 98.0 94.0 79.0 70.0 74.0 78.0 63.0 F F F N N N N N Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 114.0 126.0 142.0 117.0 140.0 101.0 117.0 87.0 F F VF F VF F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 76.0 78.0 78.0 81.0 78.0 77.0 73.0 N F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -5.0 -1.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 43.6% 31.5% 37.6% 25kt / 24h 73.1% 77.3% 75.2% 30kt / 24h 58.7% 72.7% 65.7% 35kt / 24h 44.8% 72.7% 58.8% 40kt / 24h 44.8% 70.9% 57.9% 45kt / 36h 51.0% 57.5% 54.2% 55kt / 36h 28.3% 33.3% 30.8% 55kt / 48h 42.9% 37.0% 40.0% 70kt / 48h 22.6% 18.0% 20.3% 65kt / 72h 38.3% 27.0% 32.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.32 WP312025 251102 18UTC Storm Located at : 11.00 130.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 26.1 27.4 24.7 36.4 30.9 30.8 27.1 N N N N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 76.0 78.0 78.0 81.0 78.0 77.0 73.0 N U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -5.0 -1.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%