Rapid Intensification Guidance WP312025 251103 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.50 128.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.1 29.1 28.5 29.3 30.8 33.8 34.0 28.5 N N N N U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 97.0 94.0 83.0 76.0 71.0 74.0 72.0 50.0 F F N N N N N N Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 138.0 133.0 126.0 103.0 105.0 114.0 52.0 80.0 VF VF F F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 78.0 80.0 81.0 80.0 80.0 77.0 72.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 69.0% 38.2% 53.6% 25kt / 24h 78.0% 75.5% 76.8% 30kt / 24h 73.7% 73.2% 73.5% 35kt / 24h 69.4% 73.2% 71.3% 40kt / 24h 69.4% 73.2% 71.3% 45kt / 36h 54.5% 47.2% 50.8% 55kt / 36h 29.9% 23.6% 26.7% 55kt / 48h 35.1% 27.6% 31.3% 70kt / 48h 15.6% 10.6% 13.1% 65kt / 72h 19.5% 13.8% 16.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.28 WP312025 251103 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.50 128.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.1 29.1 28.5 29.3 30.8 33.8 34.0 28.5 N N N N N F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 78.0 80.0 81.0 80.0 80.0 77.0 72.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%