Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    127.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  29.5  30.8  36.6  36.4  37.3  29.2  27.6  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  79.0  74.0  71.0  74.0  78.0  60.0  43.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   133.0 125.0 103.0 125.0 102.0  81.0  86.0  79.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       76.4%       41.4%       58.9%
 25kt / 24h       77.9%       71.6%       74.7%
 30kt / 24h       76.3%       69.0%       72.6%
 35kt / 24h       76.3%       69.0%       72.6%
 40kt / 24h       76.3%       68.3%       72.3%
 45kt / 36h       57.3%       41.3%       49.3%
 55kt / 36h       26.7%       19.2%       22.9%
 55kt / 48h       26.0%       17.6%       21.8%
 70kt / 48h        9.8%        7.1%        8.4%
 65kt / 72h        8.9%        8.5%        8.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP312025 251103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    127.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  29.5  30.8  36.6  36.4  37.3  29.2  27.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%