Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  35.9  34.1  30.6  28.3  32.0  28.0  36.2  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  74.0  71.0  73.0  79.0  66.0  57.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  58.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  93.0 103.0  93.0  92.0  71.0  71.0 117.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  83.0  83.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  82.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -7.0  -6.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       68.9%       28.0%       48.5%
 25kt / 24h       63.0%       54.3%       58.7%
 30kt / 24h       54.0%       49.5%       51.8%
 35kt / 24h       54.0%       49.5%       51.8%
 40kt / 24h       54.0%       44.4%       49.2%
 45kt / 36h       65.0%       35.5%       50.2%
 55kt / 36h       23.2%       16.4%       19.8%
 55kt / 48h       22.0%       10.1%       16.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP312025 251103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  35.9  34.1  30.6  28.3  32.0  28.0  36.2  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  83.0  83.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  82.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -7.0  -6.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%