Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  33.8  33.0  30.8  31.1  30.2  28.6  36.2  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  72.0  74.0  78.0  68.0  55.0  32.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  75.1  62.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 103.0  93.0 100.0  75.0  94.0  89.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  76.0  73.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -6.0  -4.0  -7.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.0%        6.9%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h       29.0%       28.5%       28.8%
 30kt / 24h       18.0%       21.6%       19.8%
 35kt / 24h       11.9%       21.6%       16.7%
 40kt / 24h       11.9%       17.9%       14.9%
 45kt / 36h       23.1%        8.9%       16.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%        2.3%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        6.0%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        1.1%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        1.7%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 WP312025 251103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  33.8  33.0  30.8  31.1  30.2  28.6  36.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  76.0  73.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -6.0  -4.0  -7.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%