Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  28.9  33.9  29.8  28.9  27.4  35.9  30.2  U  N  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  73.0  74.0  79.0  66.0  53.0  27.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  78.6  74.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  72.0  97.0  90.0  54.0 114.0 103.0 100.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  82.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  80.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0 -15.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%        9.2%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.4%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        5.0%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.6%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%        1.8%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        3.2%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        0.8%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP312025 251104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  28.9  33.9  29.8  28.9  27.4  35.9  30.2  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  82.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  80.0  82.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0 -15.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%