Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  33.9  29.7  26.3  28.1  32.3  34.6  33.8  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  76.0  79.0  76.0  60.0  45.0  18.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  82.9  74.4  74.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  97.0  90.0  63.0  73.0 132.0 113.0 110.0  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  73.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -3.0  -9.0 -12.0   4.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        3.2%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       15.9%       21.9%       18.9%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%       15.4%       11.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       15.4%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       11.5%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        8.4%        5.8%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        1.3%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        5.8%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        1.3%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP312025 251104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  33.9  29.7  26.3  28.1  32.3  34.6  33.8  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  73.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -3.0  -9.0 -12.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%